Basic Betting Strategy

play Baccarat onlineThe basic Baccarat betting strategy consists of four components. The first one is that you can bet one unit that two in a row will not make three in a row.

The second claims that if you suffer three losses in a row, you can wager three units that two in a row will not make three in a row.

You have to repeat the sequence if you lose that bet.

In case you lose four bets, you have to wait for the next shoe.

Applying this betting strategy means that you have to make a bet every time you get a second row entry (provided that you use the Alternate method for keeping score). In case you have eight consecutive losses, you are advised to refrain yourself from betting until the next shoe.

In case you win in three out of the four cases mentioned above, you have to go back to the first step and go through the process all over.

The basic strategy comes with a number of advantages. First of all, you are not required to bet every hand, which means keeping track of the wins and losses will not be such an overwhelming task. Basically, every system presumes that you will increase your bet if the odds are favourable. For instance, if you play the fast and furious tables, you cannot think of your next bet for half an hour. You have to make the right decision fast, but the more you play, the more tired you get and therefore you are more likely to make a mistake. However, if you apply the basic strategy you will be making approximately 15 bets in most shoes, which minimizes the chance of considerable damages to your bankroll.

Second, the basic strategy gives you reasonable results that are not based on hands but on shoes. For example, if you play 1,000 hands (ties excluded) you will see that Player wins will be almost the same number as the Banker wins. In other words, the basic strategy guarantees you will win about 55% of the bets, lose 40% and tie the remaining 5%.

The validity of the aforementioned theory can be easily proven. It needs to go through independent testing and the produced results should be almost the same. In order to make sure the testing is as effective as possible, you don’t have to use the same shoes for developing and testing the betting strategy. For the purpose, you can use the computer simulations of Baccarat available at most casinos.

You can expect as much as 61% of your bets to be winning ones, 32% of them to be losing and the remaining 7% of the 100 wagers to end a tie.

Let’s presume as many as thirty two shoes are zipped through in the first few sessions of the gameplay. As a result, you get the following:

Shoe Units Won Units Lost
1 5
2 9
3 5
4 3
5 -6
6 -4
7 5
8 5
9 1
10 4
11 2
12 -2
13 0
14 -6
15 8
16 6
17 -3
18 -1
19 2
20 3
21 9
22 -3
23 4
24 4
25 2
26 5
27 -3
28 1
29 4
30 3
31 -2
32 -3

As you can see, there were 21 winning shoes and 10 losing. The thirteen one was a tie. In this case, the winning shoes form 65.6% of the shoes and the losing ones are 31.3%. The netting zero is equal to 3.1%.

Units won are 4.3 on average,while the units lost are -3.3, which means the overall net win is 57 units.

Let’s focus on the “real world” game where one is supposed to use 167 shoes. Based on the results from the simulated play with 32 shoes, you should expect the winning shoes to be about 61.1%. The losses should be 32.3% and the draws 6.6%. In other words, you expect 109.5 winners, 52.3 losers and 5.2 draws. However, in casinos you will actually get 102 winners, 54 losers and 11 ties.

The table below illustrates the result of playing the next 32 shoes:

Shoe Units Won Units Lost
33 -1
34 -3
35 6
36 -9
37 2
38 1
39 -2
40 1
41 3
42 -2
43 -2
44 -2
45 -5
46 -4
47 -4
48 1
49 7
50 1
51 5
52 -5
53 -8
54 3
55 3
56 7
57 2
58 -2
59 1
60 1
61 -6
62 3
63 -6
64 7

To sum up, there were 17 winning shoes and 15 losing ones, which means the winning units averaged 3.2 and the losing shoes averaged 4.1. The outcome here is not as satisfactory as it was after the first 32 shoes, but actually, it should not be surprising. You should never underestimate the importance of the variability. Actually, if you pay attention to the combined results of the 64 shoes, you will see that the number of winning shoes is 38, which is 59.4% of all shoes. The losing ones were 25 and 1.5% of the wagers ended a tie. The difference between the 61.1% and 59.45 is not too big, but lets play the last 36 of the aforementioned 100 shoes.

Shoe Units Won Units Lost
65 3
66 1
67 6
68 6
69 -2
70 0
71 0
72 -4
73 -11
74 4
75 1
76 -9
77 -5
78 1
79 -2
80 1
81 -10
82 0
83 0
84 2
85 3
86 -4
87 -7
88 3
89 4
90 -12
91 -3
92 1
93 -5
94 1
95 10
96 -6
97 -7
98 1
99 2
100 -3

Here, you can see the player has won on 17 occasions, lost on 15. As many as four wagers ended a tie. The net loss was 40 units and as many as 50 units were won.

The conclusion that can be drawn from all these simulations is that as many as 55 shoes were won and 40 were lost. Five shoes ended a tie and overall, the outcome of playing through the 100 shoes is a net win of 10 units. Therefore, the basic betting strategy has proven its validity.

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