Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Monday note that Japan is not likely to pass a bill that would pave the way for the legalization of casino gambling in the country before the end of the current legislative session.
According to experts at the financial services firm, there will be not enough time for the proposed legislation to be considered in both houses of the Diet, the Japanese legislature. The current legislative session is set to adjourn on November 30. This means that legislators have a fortnight to acquaint themselves with the bill and its provisions and vote on it.
Local media suggested earlier today that the bill may be introduced in the Diet on November 16. Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that a two- or three-week extension of the current Diet session may give the casino proposal better chances to pass this year and lay the foundation for a multi-step legislative process that would see the construction of two integrated resorts in two key areas across the country.
Casino proponents have previously pointed out that complexes of this kind will significantly boost international visitation and will contribute funds to key economic sectors.
Morgan Stanley noted that although members of the governing Liberal Democratic Party may be supporting the casino bill, they will not likely try to push it through before hearing opposition first. Analysts referred to the introduction and the passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement when a legislation was passed by the leading Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition party Komeito but the opposition boycotted the vote.
The US Presidential election may be another important factor to hamper the casino bill’s passage during the current legislative session. According to people with knowledge of the matter, Japanese legislators may direct their attention towards the uncertainty that has been roaming around in the days after business magnate Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential vote.
Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in Monday’s note that if the bill misses passage during the current legislative session, it will most likely be introduced during the upcoming spring session. However, it may lose the momentum it has gained over the past several weeks, and it has really gained quite a lot of momentum. With that said, casino proponents may have to wait for several months to several years before the legislation comes into force and begins the process of establishing a regulatory framework, selecting locations for the integrated resorts, and their actual development.
The financial services firm also pointed out that legislators should create regulations that would make the properties attractive to both domestic and international visitors. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Japan has every chance to turn into a popular gambling destination due to the “higher population of high net worth individuals” and the higher number of Chinese visitors traveling to the country.
The brokerage firm valued Japan’s future casino market at between $7 billion and $20 billion.
Last week, gambling operator Genting Singapore joined the company of major casino operators to have expressed interest in managing an integrated resort in the East Asian country. The company said on Friday that it would dispose of its stake in a casino development on South Korea’s Jeju Island so as to prepare itself for a future bidding war for a casino license in Japan.
