Return to Player (RTP) and volatility are some of the most misunderstood concepts in casino gaming. Now that published RTP is required by law in many North American markets – including Ontario – players of real money online slots are starting to get wiser to these terms. So what do you need to know about them?
Well, whether you prefer high Return to Player or highly volatile slots really does depend on what you want from a game. A shallow look might have you think high RTP is better. After all, why would you want a slot game that returns less? But the reality, is a bit more complicated. As gaming markets in Canada shift towards locally regulated models over offshore access – including soon to be in Alberta – this debate is resurfacing among slots fans.
What is RTP – And Where Many Players Get It Wrong
It is useful to start with the terms involved.
Return to Player is a metric that tells players how much the game will pay out, on average, over its lifetime. Offshore sites don’t always publish this information, but regulated markets legally require it.
In Ontario, for example, developers who work with Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario licensed casinos must have their RTP and RNG systems independently verified first. The regulator even has an Ontario Gaming Lab for developers who don’t yet have independent third-party testing.
Of course, publishing the numbers makes little difference if no players understand what it means properly.
Many might look at a 98% RTP game, and assume if they bet $100 over a session they will win at least $98 back. Which is most definitely not how it works. RTP is measured over millions and millions of spins – the exact number depends on the algorithms used behind the game and the specifications of the company that tested and certified it.
Therefore the RTP of the average player’s session of a few hundred or a thousand spins is not statistically significant. Over years and thousands of players, the game will pay out 98% of its RTP. But that payback is spread out across lots and lots of players, with many of them losing in their given individual sessions.
A high RTP slot, if grinded out over a long period, will on average pay you back more than a lower RTP game. But it’s never certain to hit the quoted RTP for any individual session or player.
Potential players or those interested in how regulation is shaping the market, can find these slot game stats on sites that compare online slots paying real money. While regulators may not publish everything, reviewers dive deep into the math behind slots to help fans make informed decisions.
What Exactly is Volatility, and Why It Feels Different
This leads into volatility, sometimes called variance. Volatility is a measure of how often small wins are paid out compared to big wins.
A highly volatile slot with 98% RTP might pay out tens of thousands to one player hitting the max win, making up a big chunk of the RTP, while lots more players lost during that time. A lower volatility slot will have more consistent smaller wins for more players, but the maximum win will probably be capped at a lot less.
For example low volatility might mean 600x or 1000x maximum win, but the odds are higher so it happens more frequently.
On the other hand, highly volatile slots might have a 10,000x maximum win. But it has a tiny chance of happening so only comes up for a single player every few months or even years.
Volatility is difficult to quantify as a concrete number. You’ll usually find them labelled as high, medium or low. Regulators in most markets don’t require casinos to publish this information for that reason, as it is an abstract metric for the most part.
Regulators would rather look at RTP, which they can guarantee matches the RNG used by developers. In the US, some states set a maximum payout range which can indirectly cap extreme volatility. However Ontario – and likely Alberta – have both decided to leave specific game regulations as a light touch.
RTP vs Volatility and How Regulation Influences the Choice
These two factors often interact. Although a slots RTP can change and its volatility stay the same, developers often make high RTP slots less volatile and vice versa.
Generally players who are math-minded and take less risks should go for RTP over variance. If you’re the type that likes to play for a longer period and is happy to walk away a small winner at the end.
If you’re a riskier player who always keep playing until you hit big or go home – higher variance slots will be the way forward. But, you do want to balance that by picking higher RTP slots.
Regulatory changes across North America in recent years have made this much more transparent, at least for RTP. It is interesting that no state or province has yet tried to regulate volatility exactly, although some have indirectly.
However, Ontario’s market has been a huge financial success for the province, and Alberta is looking to follow a similar model. So players can continue to debate between RTP and variance, but regulation is unlikely to look directly at the issue anytime soon. As long as games remain fair and aligned with their certified RNG.
