Spain’s gambling framework may already have room for certain types of prediction betting, according to legal experts who recently discussed how the growing market could be treated under current regulations.
The issue was examined during a Gaming in Spain webinar held on 6 July 2026, where representatives from ECIJA and H2 Gambling Capital reviewed the possible classification of prediction markets, in Spain. The discussion also covered proposed changes to the country’s Remote Gambling Act and the introduction of new deposit controls that will affect licensed operators.
Prediction markets have expanded across several international markets during the past year, leading regulators in different countries to consider whether existing gambling rules can apply to these platforms. In Spain, the debate has become more relevant after action was taken against two prediction market operators.
Existing Rules May Cover Prediction Betting
Spanish regulations already allow betting arrangements where customers take positions against each other while the operator provides the platform and acts as an intermediary. ECIJA’s Camille Gonzálvez, a TMT and iGaming lawyer, said during the webinar that prediction betting focused on sports or horse racing could potentially operate within this existing structure.
The possibility depends on how the product is designed. A market based on sporting outcomes and organized through a peer-to-peer model could be viewed similarly to forms of betting that Spain already recognizes.
The matter gained attention in May 2026 when the Spanish gambling regulator, the DGOJ, started disciplinary proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi. The regulator also ordered internet providers to block access to both platforms, stating that offering bets on uncertain future events without a Spanish gambling licence violates national gambling rules.
The proceedings are expected to take three to four months and represent one of the clearest indications of how Spanish authorities currently view prediction markets. The DGOJ’s approach suggests that these products will generally fall under gambling regulation unless they meet existing legal requirements.
During the webinar, participants also discussed the market impact of prediction platforms. They noted that comparisons between prediction market transaction volumes and traditional sports betting figures can be misleading because the way activity is measured on these platforms does not directly match betting stakes or operator turnover.
Spain Considers Gambling Law Changes
Alongside the prediction betting discussion, lawyers reviewed a consultation process launched by the DGOJ regarding possible updates to Spain’s Remote Gambling Act, also known as Law 13/2011.
The proposed changes include stronger identity verification measures aimed at reducing income tax evasion, the creation of a register for approved business-to-business software providers, and additional advertising restrictions. These advertising measures follow earlier government efforts to introduce tighter controls in the gambling sector.
The planned reforms would require approval through new primary legislation rather than being introduced through a royal decree. The public consultation period ended on 22 June 2026, and the DGOJ is expected to prepare a formal draft bill before it moves to Spain’s Congress and Senate.
The timing of that legislative process remains uncertain because of the country’s current parliamentary situation.
Deposit Limit Rollout Begins
A separate regulatory measure has already progressed further. The Council of Ministers approved a cross-operator deposit limit framework through a royal decree on 23 June 2026.
A trial version of the system is scheduled to begin on 25 September 2026. The full rules are expected to take effect on 25 March 2027, six months after the initial rollout.
Under the new approach, default deposit limits will apply across multiple operators rather than separately at each gambling company. The limits will be €700 per day, €1,750 per week and €3,300 over a four-week period.
H2 Gambling Capital estimated during the webinar that the measure could reduce annual spending by players with Spanish-licensed operators by around €300 million. The firm also projected that market channelisation could fall from 76% currently to 74% in 2027, before settling at around 71% from 2028.
The Gaming in Spain Conference is scheduled to return to Madrid on Tuesday 15 October 2026. DGOJ director general Mikel Arana will appear as the headline speaker. The event agenda is expected to include discussions about the regulator’s problem gambling detection algorithm, the deposit limit rollout, and the possible treatment of prediction betting and sweepstakes within Spain’s regulatory system.
Other announced speakers include Xavi Muñoz Bellvehí, managing partner at ECIJA Barcelona; Jorge Hinojosa, director general of Jdigital; Pedro López Martín-Andino, managing partner at MartínAndino Abogados; Patricia Lalanda, partner at Loyra Abogados; Camille Gonzálvez, TMT and iGaming lawyer at ECIJA; Christian Heins, founder of European Gambling Gathering; Mauro De Fabritiis, founder of MDF Partners; Dmitry Belianin, managing partner at Blask; and Rasmus Kjaergaard, chief executive officer of Mindway AI.
Source:
Prediction betting could fit Spain’s existing gambling rules, lawyers say, European Gaming Editorial, europeangaming.eu, July 21, 2026.
