Expected Return and Expected Value

Expected return and expected net value are related, but they are not the same number. Expected return describes the average amount returned relative to total stakes. Net expected value subtracts those stakes. Consider a hypothetical game with a ninety-eight percent return under a specified strategy. One thousand dollars of total turnover has an expected gross return of nine hundred and eighty dollars. Subtract the thousand dollars wagered: the expected net result is a twenty-dollar loss. Turnover is the sum of all wagers, including money wagered again. It is not necessarily the initial deposit or the balance remaining at the end. The same starting money can fund many rounds of turnover. You can calculate an illustrative per-round stake by multiplying denomination, credits per hand and hands played. Twenty-five cents times five credits on ten hands is twelve dollars and fifty cents per round. More hands raise the total exposure. For any fixed return assumption, net expected value is total turnover multiplied by the return fraction minus one. A return above one hundred percent produces a positive model expectation only when its exact rules and strategy assumptions hold. It still does not guarantee a profit. Real session results can differ greatly from the average, especially when rare awards contribute heavily. Compare like-for-like tables and strategies, keep the units clear, and do not raise stakes to turn a theoretical average into a spending target.