The first thing a blackjack player asks themselves when hitting the casino floor and stepping up to a blackjack table certainly is “how do I improve my odds?”
While the answer to this question for other popular table games is actually pretty simple – you just can’t improve, blackjack is one of those games that offers players the chance to up their odds against the casino if a good strategy is in place.
In our previous article dedicated to the game of blackjack, we discussed shuffle tracking, an advantage play technique that is based on players’ skills to track certain cards/card sequences through a series of shuffles and use the knowledge gained through the use of the technique to make decisions at the table.
There is a very specific form of shuffle tracking called ace sequencing and it deserves to be paid special attention since those who perfect it can gain a massive advantage over the casino. However, it should be noted that just like shuffle tracking, ace sequencing is not an easy advantage play technique and many blackjack experts believe it should be avoided as very few players have been able to truly master it.
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What is ace sequencing?
Ace sequencing involves the player (or a team of players) keeping track on specific areas of a deck or decks of cards prior and through the shuffle process to determine where aces might be positioned after the cards are shuffled and placed back in the shoe.
As already mentioned, ace sequencing is a form of shuffle tracking. The basic objective of shuffle tracking is for the player to track successfully high cards in the decks (that is to say tens and aces) by keenly observing them as they are dealt and then placed in the discard tray at the end of the round.
In ace sequencing, the player is only interested in how aces are discarded and need to memorize the two-three-four cards that the dealer places on top of the aces in the discard tray.
When the decks are taken from the discard tray, shuffled, and placed back in the shoe, the player needs to watch for the slugs of cards they have memorized to begin appearing. This way they will know that an ace will soon follow.
And knowing when an ace is coming gives the player an edge over the dealer and enables them to adjust their bets accordingly. In very much the same way, knowing that the dealer’s hole card is an ace can help the player decide whether to hit, stand, split, double down, or surrender, if that last option is available at the casino they are playing blackjack at.
According to one very popular estimate, a player who knows when an ace will be dealt as the first card in their new blackjack hand gains a 50.4% advantage over the dealer. That estimate includes the other popular estimate that a player has a nearly 31% chance to draw a blackjack or there is a high probability for the player to make a strong hand with any other total.
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When does ace sequencing work best?
It is believed that ace sequencing, just like shuffle tracking, works best with six- and eight-deck blackjack games. And it is much easier to utilize this technique when simpler shuffles are used.
Simpler shuffles are used in games that involve multiple decks since more complicated shuffles would take ages to perform where there are more cards to be shuffled.
Card shuffling involves changing the locations of the cards before they are placed back in the shoe. However, simpler shuffles are not likely to result in any significant changes in the slugs of cards identified and memorized by players who use ace sequencing to improve their odds against the dealer.
For example, if a player memorizes two cards that are placed on top of an ace in the discard tray and the dealer performs a perfect two-riffle shuffle, then the player should insert three unknown cards between their tracked cards to have a relative idea when the ace is likely to be dealt.
If [8d] and [Jh] are placed on top of [Ac] in the discard tray, following the relative position of these cards within the deck through the shuffle would mean that the ace is likely to be dealt next after a sequence of [8d][x][x][x][Jh][x][x][x].
However, it is important to note one more time that the above example only works when the dealer performs a two-riffle shuffle perfectly.
Before using ace sequencing, players should study carefully the shuffling method used by the dealer at their blackjack table. Dealers at different casinos are required to use different predetermined shuffling techniques before dealing cards. And these techniques can sometimes be really complex, which makes ace sequencing harder to use.
It is also a good idea for players to avoid blackjack tables where dealers are equipped with an automatic shuffling machine. Keeping track on cards at such tables really is a nightmare. One more important thing to take into account is that ace sequencing cannot be used at online casinos because the computer does all the shuffling to make it absolutely impossible for the player to predict when a slug of good cards will be dealt.
Ace sequencing is a useful skill to master, but is one that takes a lot of time and practice. The good thing about this advantage play technique is that it can be really profitable, but one major downside is that they are not that many players who use it successfully and there are even fewer books to help you perfect it.
