Blackjack Card Counting Systems

We ended the previous article with explaining the change in player expectations discarding a certain card has.

The greater the number of low cards in the deck is, the higher the chance is for both players and the dealer to get a stiff hand, which is bad for both, but worse for players. This is because:

– the higher the low card count, the larger the chance is for a player to not get a blackjack and miss on the all-important 3:2 payoff;

– a stiff hand is equally risky for both players and dealers, but it also reduces the possibility for a successful split or double down.

The greater the number of high cards means an improved chance for both players and the dealer to get a blackjack. However, players draw bigger advantage because they are usually paid a 3:2 payout, whereas the dealer receives only even money for his blackjack.

Origins of card counting

There are 16 10-valued cards in the deck (4 10s, 4 Js, 4 Qs and 4 Ks), and 36 other cards. Thus, when the ratio of 10-valued cards to non-10-valued cards grows beyond 1:2.25, the advantage moves from the house to the player, and vice versa. This is the basis of all card counting systems, as described by Edward O. Thorp, an MIT mathematics professor, who brought basic strategy and card counting to the public in 1962 with his groundbreaking book “Beat the Dealer”.

He introduced his Ten-Count System which, albeit difficult to use, managed to successfully give a player the advantage in blackjack and provided the basis for players to develop their own systems.

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The Ten-Count System requires to keep a track of the number of 10-valued and non-10-valued cards that have been drawn. The player starts with two numbers in his mind – the number of 10-valued cards, which is 16, and the number of non-10-valued cards, which is 36.

As cards of each group are dealt, the players subtracts their count from the respective number. So, if the player has counted that 5 10-valued cards are out of the deck and 8 non-10-valued ones, the two numbers will now be 11 and 28. Their ratio is 1:2.54, which is higher than the initial 1:2.25 and the player will accordingly reduce his bets or may even decide to stop playing.

However, this system is difficult to implement because it requires players to keep track on both 10-valued and non-10-valued cards, do subtractions from two separate numbers and calculate a ratio between the two. Many find it hard to go through the entire process while trying to remain focused amid all the distractions a crowded casino brings.

Enter Harvey Dubner

Based on Thorp’s findings, Harvey Dubner, an engineer and mathematician, developed the High-Low Point Count System, also known as the Hi-Lo System of card counting. Thorp included this system in the second edition of his book “Beat the Dealer” in 1966.

Hi-Lo is the card counting system used by most blackjack counters today because it is the easiest to master and employ, and the one beginners should start with.

Like every other card counting system, Hi-Lo is also based on the premise that some cards bring a greater advantage to the player (and greater disadvantage to the house) and vice versa. However, although different systems share a core of principles, they vary in complexity and potential.

There are simpler systems, like the one we will be speaking about, that require less mental processing and are easier to employ, but are also less accurate and less profitable. Complex systems, on the other hand, incorporate more complicated scoring that yields better results, but are very hard to reproduce in real conditions which involve a lot of distraction and stress.

The system itself

As we said, the Hi-Lo counting system is the best choice for a beginner card counter. It is a single level counting system that excels through its simplicity as it replaces all the different percentages listed in the previous article’s table with three numbers – 1, 0 and -1.

The card counter begins the game with a count of 0 and adds or subtracts 1 or -1 with each card drawn out of the deck. Those equal to 0 leave the count unchanged. As the count changes, the player adapts his bets accordingly, as will be discussed in one of the next articles. When the count is positive the player has advantage over the house and should increase his bets, and vice versa. From a clear bankroll point of view, the player should not be betting at all when the count is negative, but that will not go undetected by the casino staff and he will be suspected in counting.

Apart from being a single level counting system based on a simple plus-minus count, the Hi-Lo system is also what you can call a balanced count. This means that the entire quantity of cards adds up to 0 points, meaning that if you go through the entire deck (or decks) and your count is different than 0, you’ve made an error. This will be discussed in detail in the next articles where we discuss running count.

Apart from the balanced Hi-Lo system, which we will delve into with the next article, there are other balanced systems, but also unbalanced ones, which don’t add up to 0. You can also have a level I, level II and level III counts, where the level is indicative of the highest point card value.

For single and double-deck games it is more important to choose a system with high playing efficiency, while a count betting correlation is more important for shoe games. Many players believe that using a common blackjack card counting system increases the chance of getting caught by the casino, but this is not true. Being detected depends on the player’s behavior and further on in our guide we will outline several telltales you should avoid showing.