The revenue decline of Macau casinos continued for fourth consecutive month. According to statistics and analysts expectations, October may become the fifth straight month of revenue decline.
The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau issued a report last week stating that there is a 7% decline in revenue for July, August and September compared to the numbers of last year. The revenue is also 9% lower compared to the one generated over the second quarter of 2014, which in its turn was smaller than the first quarter’s one.
The first quarter of 2014 was as well less profitable compared to the fourth quarter of 2013. The pattern goes on like this up until 2009.
A Record Decrease in VIP Baccarat Revenue
The biggest decrease was seen in the VIP baccarat sector, close to 20%. This is the first time the VIP profits go down to less than 50% of the overall profits. There is hope in the slot sector, which reported an increase of 2% from the second quarter. The number of slot machines, however, is lower, as well as the total gaming tables.
The also-rans of Macau have struggled as well. The sports lottery reported more than $24 million for the third quarter. Most of itwas generated from basketball and football betting. The combined revenue of the Macau Jockey Club and the greyhound tracks of Canidrome amounted to $83 million.
What Do All the Numbers Mean, Is November The Knight in Shining Armor?
The current calculations from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macau estimate that October will bring around 24% less revenue from October 2013. The estimation may still change considerably as last year’s October brought a record of $4.5 billion, which leads to the conclusion that the current revenue of this month may be considered as positive compared to the rest of the months.
The analytical agency Wells Fargo tried to bring a sense of optimism by stating that despite the current decline of 30% compared to last year’s Golden Week, the decline is actually 6% less than the subsequent week of last year.
Another analytics agency – JL Warren Capital – suspects that 2014 fiscal year will not bring any positive statistics. This will be the first time such a thing happens since the gambling authorities in Macau began to request data analysis in 2002. All consecutive years since 2005 have brought revenue growth of over 10% except the post-recession 2009.
Deutsche Bank Expects a Positive November
Deutsche Bank also gave their expert opinion, stating that November may bring light to the slumber in which Macau’s gambling industry currently resides.
This conclusion was made on the data from November 2013, where the VIP revenue increased by 3%. Karen Tang from DB explained that despite the effort of research agencies to give a brighter picture of the Macau gambling situation, it will not be a miracle but simply a lesser decline.
