More to life than death and taxes
According to the adage, the only things we can guarantee in life are death and taxes. While some people are intent on finding ways to avoid both, others have taken a more pragmatic approach and are looking to make money from the less predictable events!
Kalshi and other prediction platforms allow users to ‘bet’ on the outcomes of real-world events. However, rather than betting against the house, users trade YES and NO outcomes with each other. The site’s founders are now both billionaires, with the site valued at $11 billion. At 29, one of the founders, Lopes Lara, is the youngest self-made female billionaire on earth. While she might not have predicted that, she always had her sights set high and is reported to want to become the next Steve Jobs.
While many were looking the other way, Lopes Lara and fellow Kalshi founder Mansour came up with a concept that is taking the industry by storm. We sat down with Ian Zerafa from Casino.org to better understand what Kalshi’s unprecedented growth means for this young industry.
- Casino News Daily
Hi, Ian, welcome to Casino News Daily. Thanks for taking the time to talk to us about Kalshi. As an expert reviewer at a gambling comparison site, you must have seen plenty of innovation. What do you think makes Kalshi so special?
- Ian Zerafa
Hi, and thanks for inviting me to share my thoughts. Kalshi is undoubtedly quite a phenomenon. As someone who works in gambling, I know that people love to have a flutter or bet on a wide variety of games and options. However, betting can be quite restrictive in the US, but prediction market apps offer a genuine, legal alternative for most bettors. Prediction market apps do not set odds like traditional sportsbooks, but let punters legally trade their opinions on real-world outcomes and decide when the market is wrong.
They created an exchange-style model that lets users enter and exit positions while trading is open – so it’s more like buying and selling stock. Sportsbooks lock you in until the event ends. What really set Kalshi apart was obtaining CFTC approval to operate as a designated contract market (DCM), allowing its prediction markets to be categorized as event contracts. They made history by offering the first legal election contracts in the US in over a century.
While many platforms have looked for loopholes to allow them to operate in the restrictive US gambling market, Kalshi was intent on doing so with legal approval. Their vision was to build the biggest financial exchange in the world. When regulators rejected their original election contracts on the premise that they resembled gambling, they sued the CFTC, and the US District Court judge ruled in Kalshi’s favour.
- Casino Daily News
Well, that was certainly a brave move – does that mean the whole of the US is now open to them? Are they redefining the gambling industry?
- Ian Zerafa
Well, of course, it is not as straightforward as that because state regulators and legislators have a say in what can happen within their borders. While the company has sued Utah in anticipation of it advancing a ban on proposition betting, other states with regulated betting markets are taking a stand against it. While Kalshi is renowned for its election predictive market, 90% of its current volume is driven by sports. Unsurprisingly, states like Michigan, which have regulated sports betting markets, are not happy. Nevada has also sued the company to block it from offering event contracts in the state to protect its casinos.
While there is still uncertainty, with 20 federal lawsuits being filed against companies like Kalshi and Polymarket, market-leading legal betting platforms DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have jumped on the bandwagon and launched their own prediction platforms.
- Casino Daily News
So, one way or another, it seems as though prediction markets are going to go the distance. If our users want to try out Kalshi, what should they be looking out for, and how do they know how to use the platform?
- Ian Zerefa
At Casino.org, we cover all the bases, from real-money online casinos to social and sweepstakes ones. We are independent experts and therefore also cover the prediction markets. We test them out with the same rigor that we would any other platform. So whether players want to check out the ins and outs of this type of platform or are interested in finding a Kalshi promo code, we have got all the bases covered.
We also have a regularly updated news feed with all the comings and goings of the legal wrangles. Prediction markets are changing fast, and the regulators are weighing in, and availability is shifting from state to state. We track the news to focus on what might affect access and trading.
- Casino Daily News
What is Kalshi doing to attract users?
- Ian Zerefa
Clearly, Kalshi is cutting through the noise and attracting those who want to bet legally. While there is quite a lot of discussion about whether they are a betting platform, they are not shy about offering great bonuses to those who would like to try out their exchange.
My colleague Chris Jonat told me that they have one of the strongest welcome bonuses in the business. They offer a minimum $1 deposit to make it easy for people to get started, and then they have a realistic $100 trading requirement that is achievable if players stick to liquid markets and manage their risk.
- Casino Daily News
Why do you think that they are attracting so much media attention?
- Ian Zerefa
In my opinion, Kalshi is like most industry disruptors. They want to do something different, and inevitably, they are getting pushback from both states that do not want their citizens to gamble and those that already have established markets. In addition, industry big guns such as DraftKings have them in their sights. In addition, while they are headlining big numbers, all that litigation will not come cheaply. This young industry is going to need to have deep pockets.
Online gambling is a massive business, and while there should be plenty of business to go around, we know that is not how tech markets work. So, initially, we will see plenty of healthy competition, but ultimately, the market will consolidate into a smaller number of enterprises. What we do not know yet is whether Kalshi’s investors have backed the winner.
