As already mentioned before, casino players often hold a number of misconceptions related to the nature of random events. A great part of these misconceptions are based on the very nature of random events as well as on understanding the phenomenon wrongly.
The above-mentioned beliefs are called erroneous or also fallacious beliefs. They are actually related to the players’ attitude toward luck, control, chances and prediction. However, a clear line must be drawn between the unrealistic beliefs of some gamblers and the actual reality to illustrate the main errors casino players usually make as well as the origin of these errors.
The basic problem of most gamblers is the misconception that they could beat the games’ odds and actually win. Strangely, even players who know the odds still believe they can beat them and generate a winning. Some experts argue that such a concept is not an erroneous belief but a result of the player’s experience with random events that could create a wrong impression that random outcomes could be actually predicted.
Another problem is that people are predisposed to looking for certain patterns and can hardly be convinced that long winning or losing streaks could be a pure coincidence. On the other hand, some people believe that random events have no cause and find that mysterious, not to mention that they truly believe they could influence the random outcome. Other casino players do not believe in such a thing as random event. Theoretically, part of this concept is true, but in practice, a random event could occur when a complex process is combined with a certain problem and this leads to full uncertainty about the probable outcome.
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As a matter of fact, randomness is a mathematical concept. However, the predictability of random events is not relevant. In fact, calling a certain event a random one simply means that the observer does not know what the outcome will be. Actually, the nature of most “random” events could be determined, but it is practically impossible for a player to predict them and their consequences.
In addition, different random events are not equal when it comes to their probability, because some of them are more likely to occur in comparison to others. This is especially true when the joint events’ chances or the chance of one event happening compared to another are taken into account.
Understanding probability and randomness helps explain why a losing streak does not make an independent win due. Gambling harm has many causes; knowing the mathematics alone does not prevent it.
Major Fallacious Beliefs in Gambling
Almost all casino players hold a number of fallacious beliefs mostly related to random events’ nature. A great number of these misconceptions are based not only on the nature of random events, but also to not understanding the words used to describe the phenomenon properly.
Various systems of classification for erroneous beliefs related to casino and gaming activities have been actually proposed. The most common ones are related to the categories that are called “gambler’s fallacy” and “illusion of control”, but the truth is that none of these systems have taken into account that they can be interrelated.
Gambler’s Fallacy
Odds and Probabilities
Random Events in Casino Games
Casino Card Games Math
Blackjack Systems Math
Here is a list with the most commonly-met misconceptions as well as their true nature’s decryption.
One of the most common misconceptions is that events are consistently erratic. In fact, random events are sometimes called clumpy, as sometimes long streaks of wins or losses occur.
The law of large numbers concerns the relative frequency of outcomes over many trials. It does not require a shortfall to be repaid by extra wins, or the absolute difference between wins and losses to return to zero.
According to some gamblers, it is possible for random events to self-correct themselves. In fact there is no such thing. No matter if it comes to a long winning or losing streak, it could be followed by an ordinary outcome that could not be very valuable for the player as more events are added to the gameplay.
Some players strongly believe that if a certain number has not come up yet, it is due to. This is not true. Numbers that have not appeared could never appear over a certain gameplay, because dice, roulette balls or coins do not have any memories and an eventual outcome could not be predicted. That is called independence of events.
Another widely-spread misconception is that a player is due to win after a streak of losses. Of course, this would not necessarily happen, as a player is not actually to due to win or lose. What would happen during the game is not predetermined by the things that happened in the past.
A number appearing frequently is not by itself proof of bias. Investigating a suspected physical defect requires appropriate data and testing, as explained in biased wheels and wheelhead speed.
According to some casino players, there are no patterns when it comes to randomness. This is also not true, because random events could actually form certain patterns and there is such thing as a coincidence. Gamblers also usually say that random events and patterns are two incompatible terms. As already mentioned, there could be some apparent patterns but no future events would be based on these patterns. In addition, past patterns are hardly possible to be repeated.
Independence depends on the game. Fair roulette spins are modelled as independent, but drawing cards without replacement changes the remaining deck. Do not extend an independence claim to every event in every casino game.
Some casino players actually believe that using certain betting systems, lucky charms and even superstitions actually does work. Though such things may sometimes appear to work, players should never depend on the belief that success is likely to be repeated.
The Gambler’s Fallacy
The gambler’s fallacy, which is also known as the “fallacy of the maturity of chances”, is actually the mistaken belief that if a certain event has happened for a long time, it is more likely for it to happen less frequently in the future, and vice versa – if something has happened less frequently than normal over a certain period of time, it will surely happen more regularly in the future.
According to some scientists, gamblers are more likely to be looking for various patterns that give them a misconception that they would be able to always beat the odds in a game of chance. In fact, such casino players mistakenly think they do have chances of winning against the house that is better than the average ones.
For independent events, previous outcomes do not change the probability of the next event. The word “independent” is essential: it describes the relationship between events, not a promise that every sequence will look evenly balanced.