The goal of every card counter is not playing to simply get complimentary services. Instead, he/she plays the game for hard cash and in order to accomplish such a goal, he/she needs a thorough knowledge of risk of ruin. He/she needs to identify his/her tolerance to risk and to devise an appropriate betting plan, with which to meet or overcome that risk.
Risk of ruin and bankroll size
Risk of ruin is the probability of exhausting a defined bankroll under a specified model. State whether the calculation covers a fixed number of hands or an indefinite playing horizon, and whether bets are fixed or resized. A 10% result means one chance in ten only under those assumptions.
A bankroll model should specify starting funds, any withdrawals or replenishment, expected return, variance and betting policy. A positive expected return does not guarantee that the bankroll will grow or that ruin will be avoided.
What we should note is that there is a major issue when evaluating risk of ruin and it boils down to that no player will make the same play decisions in the same game all of the time. No one is immune to errors as well as no one will probably play one and the same type of game forever. Risk of ruin for one and the same bankroll is, to a great extent, dependent on the games one chooses to play. In addition, if one uses cover plays and cover bets, then the expected value of the game and the standard deviation figure will be changed, while they both are key elements to risk of ruin evaluation.
Different players will usually have different notions about the acceptable risk of ruin. In case a player uses a bankroll, which can be supplied with funds on a regular basis, he/she may be willing to expose it to a bit higher risk of ruin, compared to, for example, another player whose bankroll cannot be replenished that easily. Professionals, who make a living from blackjack, will usually prefer the smallest risk of ruin possible (such as 1% or even less).
Keeping the same maximum bet while changing the spread does not preserve a particular risk of ruin. The frequency and size of every bet, the game’s rules and the player’s advantage also matter. A $100 maximum with a $25 minimum and the same maximum with a $10 minimum are different betting plans and need separate calculations.
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Standard deviation and how it affects one’s bankroll
Standard deviation measures the spread of results around their expected value and must be expressed in stated units, such as dollars per hand or units of a specified base bet. With variable stakes, it depends on how often each stake is used and on the outcomes associated with those bets. A wider spread alone does not establish a universal standard deviation.
Risk of Ruin and Standard Deviation
Building up and Securing the Bankroll
Approaches Utilized by a Card Counter
Making a Proper Selection of a Game
Appropriate Games
Rules, penetration, deck count, strategy and betting ramp all affect a simulation or calculation. A table listing standard deviations only by deck count and spread leaves out important assumptions and should not be treated as a reliable risk-of-ruin calculator. Use a model matched to the actual game, and do not interpret its estimate as a guarantee.
