A novice player looking to dive into card counting might wonder if this form of advantage play works. The simple answer is – it does!
Players can swing the odds in their favor and beat the casino if they use correct blackjack strategy and combine it with a good card counting system that they have mastered to near perfection.
There is a countless number of counting techniques and a player’s choice of a system to learn and utilize at the blackjack table depends strictly on their level of experience and comfort with using such systems.
They are generally classified in four levels based on how difficult they are to learn and use. Level 1 systems are the easiest, while level 4s are the most complex ones. For beginner blackjack players who had just begun their journey into card counting, we recommend strongly level 1 strategies.
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And Canfield Expert is one such technique. This count was invented by blackjack aficionado and a former pit boss turned author Richard Canfield. It was first introduced in his book Blackjack Your Way to Riches. The book was published in the late 1970s, making Canfield Expert is one of the earlier counting systems.
While it is less frequently used nowadays and despite certain bad points to it that we will discuss at a later stage, this count is extremely efficient. It should also be noted that it is one of two methods devised by Canfield, but it costs a little bit of coin to get a copy of its much trickier brother – Canfield Master.
Before we delve into what Canfield Expert involves and whether this system is worth a try, we would like to discuss a couple of important terms that would later help us explain why this count is actually quite powerful, even though it is only a single-level one.
Betting Correlation and Playing Efficiency
All card counting systems are assigned betting efficiency and playing efficiency ratings that measure how good they are for betting and for playing purposes.
Betting correlation describes how a count’s card values relate to changes in advantage. It is not the percentage of winning bets or a guarantee that the player’s edge is estimated exactly. Keep basic strategy separate from the count’s rules for changing a decision.
However, the player still should have some money management system at hand as having an edge over the casino does not always mean that you are going to win a hand.
As for playing efficiency, it measures how well a player’s counting system of choice guides them in making basic strategy variations.
Playing efficiency and betting correlation measure different aspects of a system. Neither is a success rate, and neither alone determines the result of a session.
The Canfield Expert Count – How Does It Work?
Canfield Expert is a balanced system, which means that counting starts at zero and when the card counter has gone through an entire deck, the count should be zero.
As it is with all other counts ever introduced, this one too requires players to assign pre-determined values to each and every card as it is being dealt. As mentioned above, Canfield Expert is a single-level system which means that the player will only have to either add or subtract 1 from their running count. This is what makes this system so simple.
So when a new game kicks of and the dealer begins to deal cards, the player should start assigning values to these based on the chart below:
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | J | Q | K | A |
| 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
As a new card is turned, the running count will update, unless that new card is a 2, an 8, or an ace.
The ultimate goal of every card counting system is to show players whether high cards (aces and 10s) prevail in what’s left from the deck or whether there are more low cards left in play. Knowing this is particularly important as it provides players with information whether a natural, which pays out 3 to 2, is likely and also helps them adjust their bets.
As you have probably noticed, Canfield Expert does not reckon aces, that is they are not assigned any value. However, it might be a good idea to keep a count of them in addition to the running count for better results. Also, getting used to side-counting the aces with this system will help you in future if you try other, more complex methods where keeping a count of the aces in play is actually required.
To put the knowledge we’ve provided our readers with so far, here’s an example of how this method works. At the start of a new blackjack game, your running count is 0. During the first hand, an Ace appears first, which means that the count stays at 0. A 9 is dealt next and you’ll need to subtract 1 from your count. The running count is now -1. Then a 3 is dealt, which means that you will need to add 1. This brings the running count back to 0. A 6 comes next to up the count to +1, and so on.
The higher the running count goes when using this system…
A running count must be interpreted using the system’s conversion method, remaining cards and appropriate indices. Since aces have a zero tag here, the running count alone does not measure the remaining ace supply or establish the precise chance of a natural blackjack.
Bet sizing also depends on bankroll, rules and the strength of any estimated advantage. Casino policies and local rules differ; a counting system does not guarantee continued access to a game.
And being spotted counting cards at the blackjack table could get you in trouble with the casino you’re playing at. You can be escorted out of it in best-case scenario or even banned from it for life, in the most serious case.
What Makes Canfield Expert a Good Technique?
Canfield Expert has a published betting correlation of 0.87. This is a comparison measure, not 87% accuracy or an 87% chance of winning.
For comparison, Hi-Lo has a betting correlation of 0.97. A higher correlation does not directly specify a player’s edge; rules, execution and bet sizing also matter. See the introduction to card counting for the underlying concepts.
The published playing-efficiency figures are 0.63 for Canfield Expert and 0.51 for Hi-Lo. These describe a different aspect of the counts and should not be read as percentages of hands won.
A positive count alone is not a universal instruction to take insurance. Insurance decisions require an appropriate index for the counting system and game.
Likewise, a play such as standing on 16 against a dealer ten must use the appropriate index and rule assumptions. Do not substitute another system’s thresholds without checking them.
Disadvantages
While Canfield’s system seems like a nice introduction to card counting, we should also note that there are several significant disadvantages attached to it.
The edge this technique offers a bit lower than what other, equally simple and efficient systems do. In addition, it was designed for single-deck blackjack games. And you can rarely come across games of this kind these days.
Single-deck availability, payouts and table policies vary. There is no general evidence that surveillance at such tables is exactly ten times more intensive.
Final Thoughts
Canfield Expert is a nice strategy to get into card counting. It is not too challenging to master and it offers an OK edge. On the other hand, there are other just as simple systems that can be better used with multiple-deck games, including Red 7 and Knockout.
And for players with some counting experience, upgrading your skills to a level 2 method such as the Zen Count method than learning another level 1 one is probably a better idea.
